Will next U.S. president be a hawk?

Will next U.S. president be a hawk?
BY ANDRÉS OPPENHEIMER
aoppenheimer@miamiherald.com

I don't know who is going to be elected president of the United States
in 2016, but I can tell you this: he or she will be much more hawkish
than President Barack Obama.

You don't have to be a political scientist to conclude that, justifiably
or not, there is a growing perception in the U.S. electorate that Obama
has gone overboard in his effort to differentiate himself from George W.
Bush's cowboy diplomacy.

There is a widespread feeling that Russia, China, Iran and other U.S.
adversaries are gaining ground at Washington's expense.

It's not just the usual crowd of Republican foreign policy hard-liners
or newcomers like Donald Trump who are accusing Obama of being soft on
almost every foreign policy issue. Even many of us who generally support
Obama, especially on domestic issues, are watching his foreign policy
with growing angst.

Obama himself seemed to be recognizing this generalized anxiety last
week, when he announced that — contrary to his previous decision — he
will halt the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan and leave
thousands of troops there until the end of his term in 2017. It seemed
to be a tacit admission that his doctrine of restraint and "strategic
patience" has not always worked in America's favor. Consider some recent
world events:

▪ Russia, which last year invaded Crimea and later annexed its
territory, is now moving militarily into Syria to defend Bashar
al-Assad's regime in that country's civil war. Russia's fighter jets
have been pounding rebel positions for the past two weeks, while growing
numbers of U.S. politicians — including Democratic hopeful and recent
Obama Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — are calling for a
U.S.-imposed no-fly zone over Syria.

▪ Syria's Assad has survived in power and may be even stronger than a
year ago despite Obama's earlier warnings that he must go, and that the
Syrian dictator would cross "a red line" and face "enormous
consequences" if he used chemical weapons. Assad has used chemical
weapons to kill large numbers of rebels, without any substantial U.S.
military response so far.

▪ The Islamic State is consolidating its terrorist caliphate across the
Middle East, and Republican presidential hopefuls aren't wasting any
opportunity to remind the world that this happened during Obama's watch.
U.S. officials concede that the Islamic State has recruited up to 30,000
foreign fighters, and is encouraging thousands of others through social
media to carry out terrorists attacks across the world.

▪ China is literally building new islands — pouring massive amounts of
sand into the water, and later covering it with concrete — in South
China Sea areas also claimed by Japan, Vietnam and Philippines. China
claims the new islands are for biological research and search and rescue
missions, but its neighbors fear they will be for military bases.

▪ Iran, after signing its nuclear deal with the United States and five
other world powers in July, earlier this month tested a new
precision-guided ballistic missile that could be its first weapon able
to directly hit Israel. The test defied a United Nations resolution that
bans Iran from developing such weapons.

▪ Cuba has not made any major economic or political changes since the
Dec. 17 start of the U.S.-Cuba normalization talks, despite the
reestablishment of diplomatic ties and Obama's recent announcement of
measures that significantly weaken the U.S. trade embargo on the island.
An Oct. 8 Washington Post headline read, "U.S. officials are frustrated
by lack of progress in trade with Cuba."

My opinion: Because of these and other factors, it shouldn't come as a
big surprise that Clinton is distancing herself from Obama's foreign
policy. Just as Obama has carried out an "I'm not George W. Bush"
foreign policy, his successor is likely to pursue an "I'm not Barack
Obama" foreign policy.

Watch "Oppenheimer Presenta" on CNN en Espanol at 9 p.m. Sundays.
Twitter: @oppenheimera

Source: Andres Oppenheimer: Will next U.S. president be a hawk? | Miami
Herald -
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