Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Mutual dependence

Posted on Tuesday, 08.03.10
LATIN AMERICA
Mutual dependence
BY CARLOS ALBERTO MONTANER
www.firmaspress.com

In the Cuban city of Santa Clara during the recent July 26 ceremony, the
national anthems of Cuba and Venezuela were played. It was symbolic of
the underlying idea -- Cubazuela or Venecuba.

Hugo Chávez and Fidel -- with the reluctant acceptance of Raúl, who
lacks power to object, although he is convinced that Chávez is a
half-crazy cretin and doesn't understand why his brother loves him so --
have reprised the idea of joining the two countries in a sort of
federation. Their theory, Hugo's and Fidel's, is that the two
revolutions need each other to survive.

To Chávez, Cuba is an inexhaustible source of police intelligence,
political control and administrative example. He doesn't even have to
bother to write a rhetorical speech because it was fabricated for him in
Havana many years ago, using an old Marxist-Leninist script: the
aggressive plunder of the Yanqui empire, the horror of the greedy
capitalists, the market's miserable indifference to poverty, the
struggle of the world's oppressed against the oligarchies, and the rest
of the ideological hogwash typical of the tribe.

By this time, Chávez knows too well that Cuba is an absolute economic
and social disaster, from which anyone who can escape will. But this
``little'' detail counts for a lot less than the immense capacity for
survival that that regime gives him. What he's interested in is to hold
power forever, and there's no doubt that the Castros have that formula.

The progressive pauperization of his country is unimportant to Chávez if
he manages to grow old sitting on the presidential chair. After all,
Fidel also has built an infallible strategy to deal with material
catastrophe: On one hand, he denies it, while on the other he praises
frugality and condemns consumerism.

Suffice it to close one's eyes and slip comfortably into a benevolent
speech about the children being educated and the sick being cured, while
simultaneously savaging the greed of those countries that consume the
planet's dwindling resources. All of a sudden, being and living like a
beggar become an exemplary virtue.

To Fidel, Chávez and Venezuela are a guarantee that the Cuban revolution
will last beyond his death. Fidel does not trust Raúl's abilities. He
knows Raúl is loyal and competent -- but incapable of dreaming big.

Raúl is not a visionary. He does not have grandiose visions or hear the
voices of history. He lacks that glorious megalomaniacal touch, with
paranoid accents, that characterizes the great revolutionaries. Raúl
does not want to change the world, just the cows. He engages in pursuits
as pedestrian as enabling children to gain access to a glass of milk
after they're 7. Sheer ordinariness.

Naturally, there's also the argument of the petrodollars. Venezuela,
like the Soviet Union in the past, is useful to pay for the system's
inefficiency. Cuba can continue to be exquisitely unproductive because
that inability is subsidized by Venezuela in various ways: by sending
crude oil that is never paid for, by paying astronomical sums for
services that are never rendered (or rendered poorly, except for police
advice), and by using Cuba to triangulate purchases.

For example, Venezuela needs a drill to extract crude, or a million
kilos of powdered milk, so it places an order with some phantom
companies in Cuba at an outrageous price. In turn, the companies buy the
product on the international market, for a reasonable price, and keep
the huge profits. In almost all countries in the world that is called
fraud. To Chávez and Fidel, it is an example of internationalist
solidarity paid for by the long-suffering Venezuelans.

What's interesting about this progressive fusion of the two countries is
that it doubles the areas of risk. The Cubans know that the Castros'
exhausted regime depends on a thin biological thread from which two
ailing old men dangle, while the Venezuelans are aware that Chávez has
the support of only 30 percent of the population and the growing
rejection of the rest of the country, an imbalance of forces that could
lead to his departure from power.

If either government plunges into a crisis, it will drag the other to
destruction. For sure.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/03/1758458/mutual-dependence.html

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