Thursday, August 20, 2015

U.S., Cuba share common fear: chaos in Venezuela

Andres Oppenheimer: U.S., Cuba share common fear: chaos in Venezuela

If you ask me what was the most interesting thing that Secretary of
State John Kerry told me in an interview last week, it wasn't any of his
statements about human rights in Cuba that made headlines, but his open
admission that the United States and Cuba are talking about ways to
solve the Venezuelan crisis.

During the interview, which took place in Washington shortly before his
Aug. 14 trip to Havana, Kerry told me that the United States wants
Venezuela to comply with Organization of American States inter-American
human rights requirements, and that Venezuela's upcoming Dec. 6
legislative elections take place with credible international observers.

When I asked Kerry whether the United States has discussed Venezuela's
political and economic crisis with Cuba during the two countries'
eight-month-old talks to normalize bilateral ties, Kerry nodded.

"Yes," he responded. "We talked very specifically about America's desire
to have a relationship with the Venezuelan people that raises the
ability of the people of Venezuela to be able to be protected,
respected, represented and actually see their lives improve."

Asked what was Cuba's response, Kerry said that "they (the Cubans) did
not make any promises. But, hopefully, they will represent (to
Venezuela) that what we are doing with them now is beneficial, so why
shouldn't Venezuela also go the same road?"

In other words, the Obama administration has asked Cuba, which now has
full diplomatic relations with the United States, to help convince
Venezuela to normalize relations with Washington, and — this is my own
interpretation of Kerry's words — to release political prisoners and
press Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to allow credible
international observers during the December elections.

At first sight, the idea that the Obama administration would ask Cuba —
a military dictatorship that has not allowed a free election in more
than five decades — to help persuade Venezuela to hold free elections
and uphold democratic principles sounds preposterous.

But if you think of it a little more closely, it makes sense. Both the
United States and Cuba share a common interest in Venezuela, which is
preventing that country from becoming a failed state, the term used by
international diplomats to describe countries that descend into total
economic and political chaos.

"The Cuban government has a lot of expertise in maintaining public
order," says Jorge Sanguinetty, a Cuban-American economist and author of
"Cuba: present and future of the Cuban economy and Society," after
listening to the interview with Kerry. "They can help prevent Venezuela
from becoming a failed state."

Consider the dire consequences for both Cuban leader Gen. Raúl Castro
and President Barack Obama if Venezuela — which already has the world's
highest inflation, Latin America's lowest economic growth and one of the
region's top crime rates — falls into total chaos and becomes ungovernable.

For Cuba, it would mean an end of Venezuela's massive oil subsidies to
the island. While Venezuela's economy is in shambles, its government
still gives Cuba massive oil subsidies in exchange for political,
security and economic advice, as well as for thousands of Cuban doctors
and teachers.

For the United States, a failed state in Venezuela — without a central
government able to maintain control over its territory — could result in
Venezuela becoming a haven for Colombian terrorists and
drug-traffickers, who could end up controlling their own territory
there. That, in turn, could be a threat to the democratic stability of
Colombia, and much of South America.

My opinion: Kerry didn't go into more detail in our interview about his
discussions with Cuba about Venezuela, but his admission that the United
States and Cuba are talking about the Venezuelan crisis makes me think
that there is more going on within the U.S.-Cuba normalization talks
than meets the eye.

It sounds really weird that Cuba — of all countries — would be a U.S.
go-between to help restore a semblance of economic and political order
in Venezuela.

But then, Cuba is one of the poorest countries in the Americas, and it
cannot afford the collapse of Venezuela, at least not while the United
States becomes its new No. 1 benefactor. And Obama, who is already being
blasted by Republicans for allegedly "losing" Iraq and Syria to the
Islamic State, cannot afford allowing a terrorist state to take hold
within Venezuela.

Obama has already sent a senior State Department official — Thomas
Shannon Jr. — in recent weeks to talk with the Venezuelan government.
Judging from what Kerry told me, he is also talking with Cuba to help
bring about a soft landing of Venezuela's political and economic crisis.

Source: Andres Oppenheimer: U.S., Cuba share common fear: chaos in
Venezuela | Miami Herald -

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