Cuba - From Thaw to Disillusion

Cuba: From Thaw to Disillusion
[07-01-2016 23:49:55]
Carlos Alberto Montaner
Escritor, periodista y político

(www.miscelaneasdecuba.net).- The Cuban-American thaw is back to a
freeze. Or at least the temperature has dropped a lot. From the torrid
beginning one year ago, when Obama and Raúl Castro, virtually hand in
hand through television, announced the rapprochement, disillusionment
has set in.
In a recent interview, the American president warned that he's not
interested in visiting Cuba if there are no advances in the road to
tolerance and if he's not allowed to meet with the dissidents and those
who defend freedom of the press.

What has happened? Several predictable things.

First, the Cuban dictatorship negotiates nothing. It imposes conditions.
The Castro brothers allowed conversations with Washington to proceed on
the basis that its "old government of dead folks and flowers" was the
victim of several decades of continued aggressions by the United States.

[Translator's Note: The quotation comes from Cuban singer Silvio
Rodríguez's 1978 song "Ojalá."]

Havana hoped that Obama would lift the embargo, lavishly indemnify the
island, return the Guantánamo naval base, shut down Radio-TV Martí and
pardon spy Ana Belén Montes, sentenced to 25 years' imprisonment for
betraying her homeland for the benefit of the Castro regime.

The Cuban government had nothing to repent of. It was a perfect
one-party democracy, the best in the world, endowed with an
extraordinary electoral law, and if the Castro brothers stayed on top
for 56 years it wasn't because of fear but because of the benevolent
will of a nation 98 percent of whose citizens voted gratefully for the
selected candidates.

In Cuba there were no political prisoners, only politicians imprisoned
for delinquency. The dissidents and the democratic opposition had not
been willfully segregated by the Cuban society. Those were artificial
fabrications of the U.S. Embassy, totally disconnected from the working
people.

In Cuba everyone was reasonably happy. Everybody studied. Everybody was
cured. Everybody worked. The economy grew, despite some stumbles. It was
a marvelous society, modest and united, characterized by the spirit of
sacrifice with which it confronted the onslaughts of imperialism, and
rejective of the consumption of capitalist trash.

In turn, the White House had a very different opinion. Obama thought
that little Cuba, until then a victim of the Cold War, wanted to change
its model of government gradually and he was willing to help. He hadn't
the slightest idea that Fidel and Raúl Castro (in that order) saw his
gesture of extending a hand and burying the hatchet as an acknowledgment
of defeat.

That is why Obama was puzzled by virulent, demanding tone with which
Raúl Castro claimed indemnification for the damages supposedly provoked
by the embargo and the acts of undeclared war committed by the CIA.

Raúl began by asking $120 billion and soon reached the fabulous figure
of $300 billion, ten times the amount of the Alliance for Progress,
launched in the 1960s for all of Latin America.

There were also unexpected consequences. Obama had extended to Raúl an
olive branch not to consolidate tyranny but to facilitate a transition
to democracy, as he was trying to do in Myanmar (the former Burma) with
another tribe of corrupt military men.

When Obama said in Panama that the United States had renounced to
inducing a "regime change" in the island, he didn't mean that he was
rejecting an evolution toward elections, freedoms and pluralism in Cuba
but that he hoped to encourage the Cuban government to take that step
voluntarily. He didn't want to defenestrate Raúl Castro but place him in
a position where he would leap voluntarily.

But there was neither a suicide nor a promise of amendment. The CIA and
the State Department notified the White House that, instead of choosing
the path of a tranquil transition, the Cuban government had recrudesced
the persecution of its foes within the island. Every passing day there
were more detainees, more acts of repudiation, more beatings, more
repression.

The "engagement" devised to open up the regime had served to shut it
even more tightly, as if Raúl Castro had reached the paranoid conclusion
that the hand extended by Obama concealed a dagger, from which he should
defend himself by harshening the activities of the not-so-secret police.

And if the political opening had failed at least for the moment, all
symptoms indicated that the economic opening had also foundered, at
least from the viewpoint of the Cuban society.

After a first moment of euphoria, the Cubans had returned to their
traditional pessimism. The situation was bad but would be worse in the
future.

Among the thousands of exiles who left Cuba for Ecuador, many of them
marooned in Costa Rica, there is an abundance of self-employed
entrepreneurs. They started some small business so they could leave and
pay the coyotes to guide them out of Ecuador to Mexico and thence to the
United States.

Some 40,000 of them traversed seven countries and crossed into U.S. soil
in 2015. Millions more await the opportunity to leave Cuba. Before 1959,
the Cuban dream was to prosper inside the island, as four generations of
Cubans did during the 57 years that that restless and exuberant republic
lasted.

In turn, the Cuban dream after 57 years of the communist nightmare is to
escape from that mini-hell aboard just about anything: a raft, a visa, a
mature woman looking for love, a libidinous gentleman seeking an
adventure, a venerable old man looking to adopt a young mendicant.

Whatever.

Who earns money in today's Cuba? Very few people, and all of them
engaged in the tourism industry, given that they collect abroad and in
hard currency. A society that has several different exchange rates for
foreign currency, where the average salary is 24 U.S. dollars a month,
simply has no way to develop gainful activities.

Serious investors, especially if they answer to stockholders and trade
in the Stock Exchange, come to the island, realize that the world has
100 other markets that are safer and more hospitable, drink a mojito,
swim in Varadero, and wave farewell. There is a reason why Moody's rates
Cuban obligations as highly risky. They are. That system can't be fixed.
It has to be replaced.



**Previously published in El Nuevo Herald on December 15, 2015 with the
title Cuba, del deshielo a la desilusión.

*Carlos Alberto Montaner is a writer and journalist. Dozens of
newspapers in Latin America, Spain and the United States publish his
weekly column. He is the author of more than 25 books; several of them
have been translated into English, Portuguese, Russian and Italian. He
is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Cuban &
Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS), University of Miami.

Source: Cuba: From Thaw to Disillusion - Misceláneas de Cuba -
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