The Castros’ Chess Game in Venezuela

The Castros' Chess Game in Venezuela / 14ymedio, Jorge Hernandez Fonseca
Posted on December 8, 2015

14ymedio, Jorge Hernandez Fonseca, 8 December 2015 — The surprising,
though expected, results of the Venezuelan elections have a fairly
simple explanation if we consider that it implies the exit from the
Venezuelan political scene of Disdado Cabello, Nicolas Maduro's major
enemy and, therefore, also that of the Castro brothers.

President Maduro's last minute change in attitude towards the electoral
process could be an order from Havana with an eye to resolving, with the
triumph of the opposition, two aspects that are of major concern to the
Castros: the current power of the president of the Venezuelan National
Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, enemy of Cuba and therefore of Maduro; and
in second place, avoiding the international blow that would derive from
giving the president-elect of Argentina Mauricio Marcri's a legal basis
for his proposal to apply the "democracy clause" against Venezuela to
expel it from Mercosur, the southern common market bloc.

In the final days before the elections we witnessed a radical change in
the position of Nicolas Maduro regarding the electoral process. From
original messages warning he would take violently to the streets, he
switched to an attitude of apologizing for his words saying he "had been
misinterpreted" and assuring that the government would accept the results.

He received his (former enemies), the Latin American ex-presidents in
the Government Palace (sent – unsuccessfully – to expel Cabello from
Venezuela), and allowed opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez to vote
from prison, among other clear changes in his posture, which can only be
explained if there had been an order from Havana to that effect.

Politics is a complex game of chess. The victory of the opposition in
these parliamentary elections is a defeat for Nicolas Maduro, but there
is no doubt that the main person defeated is Diosdado Cabello, and that
this objective is greatly prioritized in Havana and will be very well
received by Maduro. Of course, as the island is already preparing for
how to deal with an opposition legislature, because Maduro has another
three years in office, there is enough time – from the Cuban point of
view – to neutralize it, having gained time.

Venturing a hypothesis, after the Cuban directive to accept the popular
will in Venezuela, it could be the current US-Cuba relationship and
possible negotiations that led Havana to influence Caracas in this
regard, with the intention of initiating a thaw between Washington and
Caracas without removing Maduro from power, only Cabello. The current
President of the National Assembly is accused of being a drug kingpin in
Venezuela, and we have seen Havana's solution to this earlier, with
accusations against Cuban generals (and ultimately the execution of a
national hero General Ochoa).

It is still too early to speculate with a reasonable degree of accuracy,
but a statement of opposition victory readily accepted by President
Maduro – the same man who had previously spoken of "massacres" if this
were to happen – merits further investigation beyond saying "he complied
with the popular will," when we know that for the Castro brothers there
is no reason other than always ensuring the protection of their interests.

Thus the acceptance of the Venezuelan opposition victory could have been
driven by the division within the ruling party and the Cubans' desire to
get rid of a dangerous enemy.

Source: The Castros' Chess Game in Venezuela / 14ymedio, Jorge Hernandez
Fonseca | Translating Cuba -
http://translatingcuba.com/the-castros-chess-game-in-venezuela-14ymedio-jorge-hernandez-fonseca/