Sunday, November 27, 2016

Cuba After Castro - How Much Change, and How Quickly?

Cuba After Castro: How Much Change, and How Quickly?

MIAMI — As the world takes in the news that Fidel Castro has died, many
people are asking what will happen next in one of the last remaining
Communist countries.

Raul Castro has been the leader of Cuba since his brother handed over
power 10 years ago, and significant change has taken place on the island
including reforms that would have been unthinkable under Fidel.

Raul Castro and President Barack Obama stunned the world in 2014 when
they announced their countries would re-establish diplomatic ties after
decades of isolation and hostility. Both nations have opened embassies
and scheduled flights from the United States to Cuba have resumed after

But critics say Raul Castro hasn't gone far enough. He has legalized
small and medium-size private businesses, but he has also cracked down
on those that flourish and compete with state monopolies.

Will Raul Castro embrace change more rapidly now that his brother is
gone? Some have speculated that Fidel Castro was holding him back with
the fervent communist ideals that he built his government around.

"I think this could go both ways," said Alana Tummino, senior director
of policy and head of the Cuba Working Group at the Council of the
Americas, a business organization promoting free trade and open markets.

"Raul is the leader of Cuba, and he has been the reformer in Cuba," said
Tummino, who said Fidel Castro's death can give his brother space to
embrace even more change. But she said she was wary: There are
hard-liners in the government who caution against economic reforms on
the island.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban American
Studies at the University of Miami, doesn't expect any changes.

"It has nothing to do with his brother. He's concerned that if he opens
up internally it will subvert the system," Suchlicki said. "He's doing
very limited things that don't threaten his power or the power of the
elite around him."

Unlike other Cuban-Americans, Suchlicki doesn't see Fidel Castro's death
as the end of an era. He pointed out that when North Korean leader Kim
Jong-Il died, his son Kim Jong-un took power and that nothing changed.

Cuba blames the half-century U.S. trade embargo for its economic
hardships. The embargo can't be lifted without congressional approval,
but Obama has used his executive powers to relax trade and travel
restrictions. In March, Obama made the first visit to Cuba by a U.S.
president in 88 years.

The latest changes announced in October allow Cubans to buy certain U.S.
goods online, permits Cuban pharmaceutical companies to do business with
the United States and allows the United States and Cuba to conduct joint
medical research.

The goal of the the policy directive and the new regulations was to make
Obama's Cuba policy "irreversible." The idea was that by establishing so
many relationships with Cuba, a future administration that might want to
scale back would face widespread opposition.

But Obama is leaving office in January, and further change in Cuba may
depend on President-elect Donald Trump. Early in the campaign, Trump
said he supported Obama's policy on Cuba, but he retreated later, saying
he would reverse Obama's executive orders and concessions until freedom
is restored in Cuba.

For Arturo López-Levy, who formerly worked with the Cuban government,
it's important to see what course the United States takes once Trump is
sworn in.

But "I don't think the death of Castro will alter the pace of the
reform," said López-Levy, a Cuba expert and lecturer in political
science at the University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley.

López-Levy expects significant change to begin when Raul Castro, 85,
steps down, which he has said he will do in 2018. Although various names
have been floated around as potential successors, most analysts agree
that the likely next leader of Cuba will be First Vice President Miguel
Mario Diaz-Canel, who's 56.

"The clock is ticking to pass the presidency to a new generation,"
López-Levy said.

Source: Cuba After Castro: How Much Change, and How Quickly? - NBC News

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