Cuba and the new normal

Cuba and the new normal
BY MICHAEL PUTNEYMPUTNEY@WPLG.COM
03/03/2015 6:22 PM 03/03/2015 6:22 PM

There is deep ambivalence in our community over normalizing relations
with Cuba. For the first wave of Cubans, those relations will never be
normal. Not when their homes, stores, factories, farms and fincas are in
the hands of Cuban communists who essentially stole them. The most
important thing the first wave lost, of course, was their country.

President Obama seems determined to give it back to them, what's left
anyway, even if it's almost unrecognizable. Most of all, President Obama
seems determined to give Cubans on the island a chance to build a civil
society, a better life that's not dependent on their government. Therein
lies the challenge: Can a civil society develop in Cuba, with U.S. help,
under a repressive, totalitarian regime? The Obama administration thinks
it can and is trying an end-run around the Castros. To do so the
administration has given up a lot — I would say too much — just to get a
dialogue started.

The dialogue had barely begun in January when Raúl Castro popped off at
the CELAC meeting in Costa Rica to say the revolution would never change
and no accommodation would be made to the U.S. on human rights or
anything else. Oh, yes, he also said the price of renewed relations
would be compensating Cuba more than $100 billion for damages done by
the embargo, which must be lifted, and taking Radio and TV Martí off the
air, as well as giving back Gitmo. Some of that, no doubt, was posturing
to mollify hard-liners back home. But Castro's list of demands can't be
ignored.

If you listened carefully to what Cuban negotiator Josefina Vidal said
last Friday in Washington after the second round of talks (I was in the
State Department auditorium), she also made it clear that in key areas
Cuba will not compromise or make concessions.

U.S. authorities want back cop-killer Joanne Chesimard, or any other
felon who's been given sanctuary? Forget it, Forget it, she said,
because Cuba is a sovereign country. As for human rights, sure, the
Cubans will talk about it, but will likely bring up the Eric Garner
incident in New York; the death-by-cop shooting of Michael Brown in
Ferguson, Missouri or, possibly, Trayvon Martin.

Our skirts are not entirely clean, to be sure, but we have a
Constitution that guarantees equal rights and due process and a judicial
system to enforce it. That's a crap shoot in Cuba.

Several foreign businessmen who invested millions in "joint ventures" in
Cuba — the government's normal 51-percent interest consists of letting
the deal go through — have been arrested on what look like spurious
charges. Two British men whose company pumped millions into renovating
the Hotel Saratoga in Havana, hard by the Capitolio, were arrested and
spent two years behind bars before being released. The boutique hotel,
which looks charming from its web site photos, is the favored choice of
U.S. congressional delegations, despite the fact that it was stolen,
twice, by the Castro regime.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and her entourage stayed at the
Saratoga recently on a visit during which they studiously avoided
meeting with prominent human-rights and pro-democracy activists. That
apparently was a condition set by the Castro government after Sen.
Patrick Leahy and his group met a few months ago with leading dissidents
and made a big deal about what they had suffered.

Pelosi said her trip was all about furthering travel and trade; guess it
was just coincidence that she was there during some of the worst winter
storms Washington has seen in years.

But back to our ambivalence. While many Cuban Americans denounce the
president for trying to establish diplomatic relations with the devil,
others are preparing to do business with him. Virtually every large law
firm in Miami has Cuba specialists advising clients on how to navigate
the new policy as determined by regulations issued by Treasury,
Commerce, ICE and other federal agencies.

Some investment firms have created venture capital funds for Cuba. Teo
Babun, who has encyclopedic knowledge of Cuba's port and transportation
infrastructure and has directed religious missions to Cuba, has resigned
to go to work for Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors of Miami Beach. Babun says
they're creating a $500-million investment fund for those willing to
take big risks to reap big rewards.

Given its checkered history with foreign investors, I don't see how
anyone in their right mind could invest in Cuba now. There appears to be
no reliable remedy for civil disputes in Cuban courts, and the
government can capriciously bring criminal charges. This is, after all,
a country where "dangerousness" is a crime.

Vidal, on the other hand, is charming. And almost persuasive. The head
of Cuba's Foreign Ministry for North America, she says Cuba is open to
full and frank discussions of disputed issues in the hope of
establishing diplomatic ties with the United States. Vidal pronounced
last week's second round of talks "good" and "productive."

Her U.S. counterpart, the redoubtable Roberta Jacobson, also called the
talks "productive" and "surprising in their frankness." She says they're
already far enough along that full-fledged embassies could be open in
Havana and Washington in time for the Summit of the Americas in Panama
in April. That's extremely optimistic, but it's possible a target date
for opening the embassies could be announced by the start of the meeting.

When the embassies eventually open, look for Secretary of State John
Kerry to be in Havana to cut the ribbon, or whatever diplomats do. And
before December 2016, expect President Obama to fly to Havana to shake
hands with Raúl Castro to cement the new era in U.S.-Cuba relations.

Many in our community will be heartsick to see it. Others will quietly
rejoice and look for ways to profit. In fact, they already are.

Source: Cuba and the new normal | Miami Herald Miami Herald -
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article12308339.html