Last Congress for Cuba's old guard

Posted on Tuesday, 04.12.11
'Last Congress' for Cuba's old guard
By ANDY GOMEZ
agomez@miami.edu

Among the significant changes taking place in Cuba is an unfolding and
most unusual pattern where criticism and dissent within the political
class at large, intellectuals, and academia is more visible today than
ever before.
At the same time, as an initiative of the Cuban government, a political
dialogue started with the Catholic church that resulted in the release
of scores of political prisoners, in particular those known as the "75
Group," while dissident groups continue to conduct their activities in
what could be described as a tug-of-war relationship with Cuban
authorities. In addition, the Catholic Church has been granted
permission by the government to establish the first seminary since the
start of the revolution and continue its humanitarian aid through
Caritas. Meanwhile, the US-Cuba conflict remains very much the same, the
main issues being the incarceration of Alan Gross in Cuba, the so-called
"Cuban Five" in U.S. jails, and the U.S. trade embargo. Further U.S.
concessions are unlikely until Cuba makes the next move.
According to reports out of Havana, the Cuban economy is transforming
from an almost 100-percent state economy to a clearly defined mixed,
market, socialist economy. By 2015, the Cuban government expects that at
least 1.8 million people and their families will represent a huge
micro-economy of small businesses, cooperative businesses, and self
employed, in the urban areas while most of the land in rural areas from
which state farms have disappeared almost entirely will be in the hands
of private farmers, finqueros and private cooperatives.
Foreign news agencies report that more than 140,000 individuals have
obtained land and more than 120,000 have obtained licenses in order to
start their own private businesses. Already 30 percent of the lodging
services are privately controlled. At the same time, the government's
own bureaucracy has not been able to process the dismissal papers of
approximately one million workers fired from their government jobs.
An entirely new design of how the government should work is being
created. The key component here is the decentralization of the
administrative and financial functioning of the central government,
vis-á-vis provincial and municipal governments, with the granting of an
expanded autonomy generating their sources of income and local budgets.
All of the proposed economic changes are part of the guidelines (
lineamientos) to be discussed and adopted at the coming congress of the
Communist Party of Cuba (CPC) on April 16-19. Another important decision
involves putting an end to the role of the party as an administrator,
constantly interfering with the work of the ministers and local
authorities. This has been discussed for some time but never adopted as
a policy. According to former President Jimmy Carter's report after his
visit to Cuba, two-thirds of the plan has been amended to accommodate
suggestions from Cuban citizens and government personnel. These meetings
have been going on for over a year. Yet these changes are not promises
for a better future.
The backdrop to these changes has been the official retirement of Fidel
Castro and the biological fading away of the leading generation ( los
históricos) of the Cuban Revolution. Raúl Castro said it very clearly,
"This will be our last congress."
After this congress completes its work, the National Conference of the
CPC will meet later in the year. This meeting will be extremely
important because a new governing structure will be adopted by the
delegates in secret vote. The National Conference will most likely
approve an expanded wave of economic changes without losing political
control. Yet the question remains, will economic reforms with no
political changes be enough for Cuba's society to accept?

Andy Gómez is assistant provost and senior fellow at the Institute of
Cuba and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami and Domingo
Amuchástegui is an analyst at Cuba News.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/12/2164100/last-congress-for-cubas-old-guard.html